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infotainment, automotive electronics 2000, to estimated numbers in 2030. In infrastructures (cell towers), factory and
and the semiconductor market have been 2030, 50% of the total cost of a vehicle industrial automation, advanced medical
consistently growing at 5%~8%CAGR. is estimated to come from electronics technology, autonomous vehicles, gaming,
With the proliferation of autonomous components. As the number of electronics security, and of course, IoT (see Figure 9).
vehicles, the amount of electronics in a components grows per vehicle, so will the Indeed, we are very likely to witness the
car is predicted to increase significantly. semiconductor content. explosion of IoT during the second half of
Figure 8 shows the actual growth of The technology convergence will this decade.
global vehicle production and electronic usher in other new products and product The explosive growth of these next-
cost as a percent of total car cost from improvements such as, 5G handsets and generation electronic products and devices
will in turn drive the next growth spurt or
The Third Wave of semiconductor market
growth. This Third Wave of growth is
predicted to come after 2024 and the
semiconductor industry could once again see
years of double-digit growth in the second
half of this decade as shown in Figure
10. Based on the above estimate, by 2030,
the overall semiconductor market could
go over a trillion dollars with outsourced
semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT)
value going over a hundred billion dollars.
The 5G revolution will also bring
significant challenges to packaging and
testing technologies and will drive growth
for advanced new packages. However, the
growth of IoT, automotive semiconductor,
gaming, etc., will also raise the demand
Figure 5: MEMS average selling price (ASP) evolution. SOURCE: Status of the MEMS Industry report, Yole for more common semiconductor package
Développment, March 2020 types. Table 1 shows actual units produced
for common package types from 2016
through 2018, and estimated units produced
in 2019. The table also shows the estimated
forecast of these packages for 5G Phase
1 for 2024, and 5G Phase 2 for 2030. The
lead frame-based quad flat no-leads (QFN)
package continues to be the most cost-
effective, smaller footprint solution with
generally good thermal and electrical
performance. QFN and molded interconnect
substrate (MIS) package demand is poised
to increase significantly with an estimated
Figure 6: The two phases of 5G deployment: <6GHz in phase 1, and higher frequency, or mmWAVE in phase 2. CAGR of 11.3% from 2019 to 2030 because
of IoT proliferation as the demand will surge
for analog and sensor products. Wafer-level
chip-scale packaging (WLCSP) is estimated
to see the second highest demand after QFN
with a 9.6% CAGR from 2019 to 2030. This
includes both fan-in for standard products,
and fan-out for advanced integrated, multi-
functional ICs. Some of the standard surface
mount device (SMD) packages will also
see higher growth, such as the very popular
8-lead small outline integrated circuit
(SOIC). The quad flat package (QFP) will
also likely see higher demand from the
automotive market. Laminate packages
Figure 7: 5G mmWave performance summary compared to that of 4G. such as ball grid array (BGA) and land grid

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10 Chip Scale Review May • June • 2020 [ChipScaleReview.com]